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Subject: Ecology and Society: The Roles and Movements of Actors in the Deforestation of Brazilian Amazonia
Date: Mon, 26 May 2008 09:28:25 -0700
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                <TD class=3Dmedtext_white>&nbsp;<B><A class=3Dlink_white =

                  href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/" =
target=3D_top>E&amp;S=20
                  Home</A> &gt; <A class=3Dlink_white=20
                  href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/"=20
                  target=3D_top>Vol. 13, No. 1</A> &gt; Art.=20
            =
23</B></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR><!-- END =
HEADER BAR --><SPAN=20
      class=3Dproof_copyright>Copyright =A9 2008 by the author(s). =
Published here=20
      under license by The Resilience Alliance.<BR>Go to the <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/ES-2008-2451.pd=
f">pdf</A>=20
      version of this article</SPAN>
      <P><SPAN class=3Dproof_citation>The following is the established =
format for=20
      referencing this article:<BR>Fearnside, P. M. 2008. The roles and=20
      movements of actors in the deforestation of Brazilian Amazonia. =
<I>Ecology=20
      and Society</I> <B>13</B>(1): 23. [online] URL:=20
      http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/</SPAN><BR>
      <HR>
      <SPAN class=3Dproof_section>Insight</SPAN>, part of Special =
Feature on <A=20
      class=3Dlink_sf =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/viewissue.php?sf=3D35"=20
      target=3D_top>The influence of human demography and agriculture on =
natural=20
      systems in the Neotropics</A>
      <P><SPAN class=3Dproof_title>The Roles and Movements of Actors in =
the=20
      Deforestation of Brazilian Amazonia </SPAN>
      <P><SPAN class=3Dproof_authors><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#AUTHO=
R">Philip=20
      M. Fearnside</A><SUP> 1</SUP></SPAN>
      <HR>
      <SPAN class=3Dproof_affiliations><SUP>1</SUP>National Institute =
for Research=20
      in the Amazon-INPA</SPAN>
      <HR>
      <BR><!-- END HEADER INFORMATION -->
      <UL>
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#ABSTR=
ACT">Abstract</A>=20

        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#INTRO=
DUCTION5">Introduction</A>=20

        <UL>
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Landl=
ess">Landless=20
          migrants (=93sem terras=94)</A>=20
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Colon=
ists">Colonists/small=20
          farmers</A>=20
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Drug"=
>Drug=20
          traffickers/money launderers</A>=20
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Goldm=
iners">Goldminers=20
          (=93garimpeiros=94)</A>=20
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Labor=
ers">Laborers/debt=20
          slaves</A>=20
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Capit=
alized">Capitalized=20
          farmers</A>=20
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Landg=
rabbers">Landgrabbers=20
          (=93grileiros=94)</A>=20
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Sawmi=
ll">Sawmill=20
          operators/loggers</A> </LI></UL>
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#ACTOR=
SANDTHEIRIMPACTS8">Actors=20
        and Their Impacts</A>=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#FUTUR=
EMOVEMENTSOFACTORS11">Future=20
        Movements of Actors</A>=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#TRANS=
FORMATIONSOFLANDANDACTORS14">Transformations=20
        of Land and Actors</A>=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#POLIC=
YIMPLICATIONS17">Policy=20
        Implications</A>=20
        <UL>
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Remov=
e">Remove=20
          motives for deforestation</A>=20
          <UL>
            <LI><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Stop"=
>Stop=20
            regularizing land claims</A>=20
            <LI><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Cut">=
Cut=20
            subsidies</A></LI></UL>
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Estab=
lish">Establish=20
          the rule of law</A>=20
          <UL>
            <LI><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Compl=
ete">Complete=20
            a cadaster of land titles</A>=20
            <LI><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Reinf=
orce">Reinforce=20
            command and control</A></LI></UL>
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Disco=
urage">Discourage=20
          movement to frontier</A>=20
          <UL>
            <LI><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Restr=
aint">Exercise=20
            restraint in approving infrastructure</A>=20
            <LI><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Creat=
e">Create=20
            and protect conservation units</A></LI></UL>
          <LI><A=20
          =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Alter=
native">Create=20
          economic alternative</A>=20
          <UL>
            <LI><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Sourc=
e">Create=20
            employment in source areas and alternative destinations</A>=20
            <LI><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Uses"=
>Support=20
            sustainable uses</A>=20
            <LI><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Domes=
tic">Support=20
            alternative supply of domestic markets</A>=20
            <LI><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#Rewar=
d">Reward=20
            environmental services</A></LI></UL></LI></UL>
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#CONCL=
USIONS20">Conclusions</A>=20

        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#RESPO=
NSESTOTHISARTICLE23">Responses=20
        to this Article</A>=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#ACKNO=
WLEDGMENTS">Acknowledgments</A>=20

        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/main.html#LITER=
ATURECITED29">Literature=20
        Cited</A> </LI></UL><!-- ABSTR (DO NOT EDIT) -->
      <P>
      <HR>
      <BR>
      <CENTER><A name=3DABSTRACT><SPAN =
class=3Dheading1>ABSTRACT</SPAN></A></CENTER>
      <P><BR>Containing the advance of deforestation in Brazilian =
Amazonia=20
      requires understanding the roles and movements of the actors =
involved. The=20
      importance of different actors varies widely among locations =
within the=20
      region, and also evolves at any particular site over the course of =

      frontier establishment and consolidation. Landless migrants have=20
      significant roles in clearing the land they occupy and in =
motivating=20
      landholders to clear as a defense against invasion or =
expropriation.=20
      Colonists in official settlements and other small farmers also are =

      responsible for substantial amounts of clearing, but ranchers =
constitute=20
      the largest component of the region=92s clearing. This group is =
most=20
      responsive to macroeconomic changes affecting such factors as =
commodity=20
      prices, and also receives substantial subsidies. Ulterior motives, =
such as=20
      land speculation and money laundering, also affect this group. =
Drug=20
      trafficking and money laundering represent strong forces in some =
areas and=20
      help spread deforestation where it would be unprofitable based =
only on the=20
      legitimate economy. Goldminers increase the population in distant =
areas=20
      and subsequently enter the ranks of other groups. Work as laborers =
or debt=20
      slaves provides an important entry to the region for poor migrants =
from=20
      northeast Brazil, providing cheap labor to large ranches and a =
large=20
      source of entrants to other groups, such as landless farmers and=20
      colonists. Capitalized farmers, including agribusiness for soy =
production,=20
      have tremendous impact in certain areas, such as Mato Grosso. This =
group=20
      responds to commodity markets and provides justification for major =

      infrastructure projects. Landgrabbers, or grileiros, are important =
in=20
      entering public land and beginning the process of deforestation =
and=20
      transfer of land to subsequent groups of actors. These include =
sawmill=20
      owners and loggers, who play an important role in generating funds =
for=20
      clearing by other groups, ranging from landless migrants to large=20
      ranchers. They also build endogenous roads, facilitating the entry =
of=20
      other actors. Future movements of actors will be influenced by =
major=20
      infrastructure plans, such as those for hydroelectric=20
      dams.<BR><BR>Policies for reducing deforestation must include =
removing=20
      motives for deforestation by stopping the practice of regularizing =
land=20
      claims and by cutting subsidies. The rule of law must be =
established=20
      throughout the region by completing the cadaster, or register, of =
land=20
      titles and by reinforcing command and control. Movement to the =
frontier=20
      needs to be discouraged by exercising restraint in approving=20
      infrastructure such as highways, and by creating and protecting=20
      conservation units. Economic alternatives to deforestation should =
be=20
      fostered by generating employment in source areas and in =
alternative=20
      migration destinations, by supporting sustainable uses of forest, =
by=20
      supporting alternative supply of domestic markets for products =
such as=20
      timber, and by rewarding the environmental services of standing =
forest.=20
      <P><BR><SPAN class=3Dproof_keywords>Key words: deforestation; =
migration;=20
      population; rainforest; ranching</SPAN> <!-- END ABSTR --><BR>
      <HR>
      <BR>
      <CENTER><A name=3DINTRODUCTION5><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading1>INTRODUCTION</SPAN></A></CENTER><BR>Amazonian =
deforestation=20
      is one of the most serious environmental problems on Earth, with =
impacts=20
      ranging from emission of greenhouse gases to disruption of the =
regional=20
      water cycle and loss of biodiversity. Understanding the forces =
driving=20
      deforestation is a top priority because any changes in policies =
designed=20
      to contain deforestation are likely to fail if they are not based =
on=20
      realistic scenarios of how the social processes involved operate =
today and=20
      how they may change in the future. Migration is an important part =
of these=20
      processes. The effect of population is very flexible because =
cattle=20
      ranching (the main use of deforested land in Brazilian Amazonia) =
is an=20
      activity through which a tiny population of humans can have a =
tremendous=20
      impact on deforestation.<BR><BR>Deforestation is often modeled as =
a=20
      process whereby clearing either spreads out from highways at a =
fixed rate=20
      (e.g., Kirby et al. 2006, Laurance et al. 2001, 2002) or spreads =
at rates=20
      determined in a =93demand-driven=94 fashion as a regional total =
that is then=20
      allocated to different locations based on =93weights of =
evidence,=94 or=20
      probabilities reflecting the attractiveness of each site based on =
such=20
      characteristics as distance to roads and soil quality =
(Soares-Filho et al.=20
      2004, 2006). Although these approaches have been important in =
providing=20
      spatial representations of the probable future course of =
deforestation, a=20
      more detailed actor-based approach will be needed if the social =
processes=20
      underlying deforestation are to be understood and eventually =
modified to=20
      contain clearing.<BR><BR>Migration has much more impact on =
deforestation=20
      than does the vegetative growth (increase through reproduction) of =
any=20
      segment of the population. Migration involves not only the =
movement of=20
      people, but also the movement of investment. The type of actor =
that is=20
      moving into an area of forest is of primary importance in =
determining the=20
      rate of spread of deforestation. Types of actors cover a full =
range in=20
      terms of wealth, legality, and the intensive or extensive nature =
of their=20
      activities (Table 1). The present paper examines what we know =
about nine=20
      key groups of actors and their movements in Brazilian Amazonia: =
landless=20
      migrants (=93sem terras=94), colonists/small farmers, ranchers, =
drug=20
      traffickers/money launderers, goldminers (<I>garimpeiros</I>),=20
      laborers/debt slaves, capitalized farmers, landgrabbers=20
      (<I>grileiros</I>), and sawmill operators/loggers.<BR><!-- TABLE1 =
--><BR>
      <HR>
      <BR>
      <CENTER><A name=3DACTORSANDTHEIRIMPACTS8><SPAN =
class=3Dheading1>ACTORS AND=20
      THEIR IMPACTS</SPAN></A></CENTER><BR><BR><A =
name=3DLandless></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading2>Landless Migrants (=93Sem =
Terras=94)</SPAN><BR><BR>Poor=20
      landless migrants arrive in the region from source areas such as =
the state=20
      of Maranh=E3o; one component of this migration is seeking free =
land, and=20
      usually arrives as whole families (e.g., Trair=E3o on the BR-163 =
Highway;=20
      Fig. 1). Another component arrives as unaccompanied men who often =
work as=20
      laborers rather than claiming land. In recent years, many of the =
migrants=20
      seeking land have become =93sem terras,=94 or members of organized =
groups such=20
      as the Movement of Landless Rural Workers=20
      (MST).<BR><!-- FIGURE1 --><BR>Migration from Maranh=E3o has =
completely=20
      transformed the central portion of the state of Par=E1, centered =
on Marab=E1.=20
      This entire area is now degraded, including virtually every =
fragment of=20
      forest left in the deforested landscape (personal observation; see =
also=20
      Rede GEOMA 2003). The Caraj=E1s Railway, completed in 1985, has =
one=20
      passenger train per week (with heavily subsidized ticket prices) =
as a=20
      public-relations investment on the part of Companhia Vale do Rio =
Doce=20
      (CVRD), the formerly government-run company that operates both the =
Caraj=E1s=20
      iron mine and the 890-km railway built to carry the ore to a port =
near S=E3o=20
      Luis, Maranh=E3o (Fearnside 1986a). The steady arrival of up to =
100 families=20
      a week in Marab=E1 has supplied a virtually inexhaustible source =
of settlers=20
      and landless migrants to central Par=E1 (Fearnside 2001a). Violent =
land=20
      conflicts have long been frequent (e.g., Schmink and Wood 1992, =
Simmons=20
      2005). This violence gained public visibility with the El Dourado =
dos=20
      Caraj=E1s massacre in April 1996, when landless migrants were =
gunned down by=20
      military police. Of the 19 migrants killed, 13 were from=20
      Maranh=E3o.<BR><BR><A name=3DColonists></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading2>Colonists/Small Farmers</SPAN><BR><BR>Movements =
of small=20
      farmers in the past have included migration to the Transamazon =
Highway=20
      from other regions, such as the semi-arid Northeast, in the early =
1970s=20
      (Fearnside 1986b, Moran 1981, Smith 1982) and movement from =
Paran=E1 to=20
      Rond=F4nia facilitated by the BR-364 Highway in the early 1980s =
(Fearnside=20
      1989a, Mesquita and Egler 1979). Many of these people were =
=93colonists=94=20
      (=93colonos=94), or settlers who are placed on lots in official =
settlement=20
      areas of various types. Others were spontaneous squatters =
(=93posseiros=94)=20
      who staked out claims on their own; these individual squatters =
have since=20
      been largely supplanted by organized landless migrants (=93sem =
terras=94).=20
      Particularly in the case of Rond=F4nia, the result of migration in =
the 1970s=20
      and early 1980s was a great explosion of deforestation. Subsequent =

      population movements to the settlement areas of both Rond=F4nia =
and the=20
      Transamazon Highway were of wealthier farmers who bought one or =
several of=20
      the small farmers=92 lots in order to establish ranches (Fearnside =
1984).=20
      Although large properties devote a greater proportion of their =
land to=20
      cattle, pasture is also the dominant land use in small properties =
(Walker=20
      et al. 2000).<BR><BR>Movements within the region now overshadow=20
      inter-regional movements as sources of deforestation (Perz 2002). =
Such=20
      movements are now opening frontiers, with a large role being =
played by the=20
      children of such settlers, such as the migrants from Rond=F4nia =
who are=20
      opening areas in Maputi in southern Amazonas. Within each =
settlement area,=20
      a succession of events takes place in which land use in the area =
changes=20
      (usually to pasture) because of both changes in the land-use =
behavior of=20
      the resident population and replacement of the population by other =
actors.=20
      Individual settlers shift from planting annual crops such as rice =
to=20
      establishing cattle pasture and increasing their herds. At the =
same time,=20
      settlers frequently sell their lots to wealthier newcomers who =
often=20
      consolidate several lots into a small ranch. During the first 5 =
years of=20
      settlement on the Transamazon Highway, the half life of a family =
in the=20
      original colonist population was only 11 years, that is, the =
attrition=20
      rate corresponded to half of the original population departing =
over this=20
      period of time (Fearnside 1986b, page 117).<BR><BR>The =
small-farmer=20
      settlements themselves can be a source of large operators, =
including=20
      =93grileiros.=94 In Apu=ED, in southern Amazonas, the Juma =
colonization project=20
      was established by the National Institute for Colonization and =
Agrarian=20
      Reform (INCRA) in the early 1980s with settlers primarily coming =
from the=20
      southern Brazilian states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paran=E1. Today =
most of=20
      the largest landholders in the Apu=ED area are people who =
originally arrived=20
      as Juma-project colonists (Razera 2005).<BR><BR>Displaced small =
farmers=20
      within the region have become a factor in some locations, such as =
the=20
      large area of deforestation around Novo Repartimento, Par=E1 that =
was=20
      initiated by population moving from the area near the Tucuru=ED =
reservoir=20
      (Fearnside 1999b). The initial movement into the area in 1992 was =
to flee=20
      from a plague of <I>Mansonia</I> mosquitoes in a settlement area =
to which=20
      they had been assigned on the western shore of the Tucuru=ED =
reservoir. The=20
      group camped for 2 years at the entry gate to the electrical =
authority=92s=20
      compound in a vain attempt to get an alternative settlement area. =
They=20
      then followed logging roads that had been built from Tucum=E3 to =
the=20
      Transamazon Highway. By 2003, this area had become one of the =
fastest=20
      growing deforestation hotspots in Amazonia (Fig.=20
      2).<BR><!-- FIGURE2 --><BR><A name=3DRanchers></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading2>Ranchers</SPAN><BR><BR>Ranchers are key actors in =
Amazonian=20
      deforestation and are responsible for most of the clearing. The=20
      predominant role of ranchers explains why poverty is not =
correlated with=20
      deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia, unlike many other parts of =
the=20
      tropics (Chomitz 2007, pages 93=9698). The profit made by a =
rancher is the=20
      total of the income derived from all sources applicable to a given =
ranch,=20
      not only what comes from the sale of beef cattle. Other sources of =
income=20
      can include sale of timber or logging rights (and, in some =
locations,=20
      charcoal), speculative gains from land sales, government subsidies =
and the=20
      use of the operations in laundering money from crime, corruption, =
and tax=20
      evasion. The relative importance of these =93ulterior=94 income =
sources,=20
      compared with beef sales, varies among locations, among ranchers, =
and over=20
      time. In areas where the initial frontier phase has passed, the=20
      =93traditional=94 beef economy is predominant, with land-use =
decisions being=20
      made based on beef production rather than land speculation and =
other=20
      ulterior motives (e.g., Faminow 1998, Margulis 2003, Mattos and =
Uhl 1994,=20
      Mertens et al. 2002). In limited areas where milk production and=20
      processing have become established, particularly in Ouro Preto do =
Oeste,=20
      Rond=F4nia, the profit from this activity is a key driver =
(Caviglia-Harris=20
      2004, Faminow 1998). The role of beef sales has increased over =
time with=20
      such factors as continual expansion and improvement of the road =
network,=20
      proliferation of slaughterhouses, the opening of export markets =
(with=20
      progress in eliminating foot-and-mouth disease), and in older =
frontiers,=20
      exhaustion of timber and of uncleared land. Ranching for beef or =
milk=20
      production and capitalized farming for soybeans are activities =
that are=20
      especially sensitive to the effect of site quality on expected =
yield.=20
      Expected yield also affects land prices and other drivers. =
Excessive=20
      rainfall in western Amazonas reduces expected yields there, =
contributing=20
      to the persistence of forest (Chomitz and Thomas=20
      2003).<BR><BR>Historically, the importance of ulterior motives for =

      ranching has undergone wide swings. Major booms have passed, such =
as the=20
      incentives from the Superintendency for Development of the Amazon =
(SUDAM)=20
      in the 1970s and early 1980s (Binswanger 1991, Mahar 1979) and =
generalized=20
      land speculation during the hyperinflation before the 1994 Real =
Plan=20
      (e.g., Hecht 1985, Hecht et al. 1988). However, both government =
subsidies=20
      and land speculation continue to play roles in Amazonian=20
      ranching.<BR><BR>The importance of beef sales is consistent with =
the=20
      recent history of deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia. The =
price of=20
      beef in Brazil in real terms declined steadily from 2001 through =
early=20
      2006, after which it rose through the end of 2007 (e.g., Kianek =
2008). The=20
      deforestation rate increased over the 2001=962004 period and then =
decreased=20
      through July 2007, after which it increased again. Beef prices =
show a=20
      strong correlation with the deforestation rate in the following =
year over=20
      the 1995=962007 period (Institute for Man and Environment in the =
Amazon=20
      (IMAZON) unpublished; see Pichonelli and Magalh=E3es 2008). This =
includes=20
      the deforestation peak in 1995 and subsequent decline through =
1997,=20
      although this fluctuation also derived from the effect of the 1994 =
Real=20
      Plan in releasing investment capital and in stopping inflation and =

      associated land speculation (Fearnside 2005).<BR>
      <P>The cattle herd in Brazilian Amazonia increased by 173% between =
1990=20
      and 2004 (IMAZON unpublished; see Pichonelli and Magalh=E3es =
2008). Brazil=92s=20
      herd as a whole has gone through a major oscillation since 1999,=20
      increasing by approximately 20 million head to a peak in 2004 and =
then=20
      declining by an equal amount through 2007, including liquidation =
of many=20
      females. This drawdown, combined with the rising beef prices =
starting in=20
      2007, is projected to drive a substantial increase in beef prices =
through=20
      2009 (Kianek 2008). Beef is a =93pernicious=94 commodity, in =
contrast to most=20
      crops such as soybeans, in that the cattle represent both the =
product and=20
      the means of production. The result is that when prices rise, =
ranchers=20
      hold their stocks (especially females) for reproduction and =
growth, rather=20
      than selling them off (Mascolo 1979). This produces more =
exaggerated price=20
      swings=97and a greater stimulus for deforestation. The price of =
beef can,=20
      therefore, be expected to be a powerful driver of Amazonian =
deforestation=20
      by ranchers in the coming years.<BR><BR><A name=3DDrug></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading2>Drug Traffickers/Money =
Launderers</SPAN><BR><BR>Significant=20
      areas of deforestation can result from use of money from illegal=20
      activities elsewhere, for example in areas held by drug =
traffickers and=20
      money launderers in the Terra do Meio between the Xingu River and =
the=20
      BR-163 Highway in Par=E1 (Escada et al. 2005, Geffray 2002, =
Machado 2002,=20
      Pontes J=FAnior et al. 2004, Sch=F6nenberg 2002). The Terra do =
Meio (Fig. 1)=20
      is an area the size of Switzerland that is largely outside of the =
control=20
      of the Brazilian government. Staff from government agencies such =
as the=20
      Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural =
Resources=20
      (IBAMA) only enters the area on brief forays; a plan to establish =
a base=20
      in the area announced in 2003 has still not been carried out. The =
power of=20
      the underground economy to affect deforestation in the Terra do =
Meio was=20
      demonstrated most clearly in 2003 when a 6200-ha clearing appeared =
in the=20
      area in only 3 weeks=92 time (e.g., Venturieri et al. 2004). The =
site, known=20
      as =93the revolver=94 because of the shape of the clearing, is far =
from any=20
      roads and is in an area that, because of its remoteness, has been=20
      calculated to have the lowest farm-gate values of beef cattle in =
Amazonia=20
      (Arima et al. 2005, page 50). The legitimate economy, therefore, =
cannot=20
      explain clearings of this kind.<BR><BR><A =
name=3DGoldminers></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading2>Goldminers =
(=93Garimpeiros=94)</SPAN><BR><BR>Mining gold does=20
      not directly result in large areas of deforestation, although =
other=20
      environmental and social impacts are severe, including destruction =
of=20
      aquatic habitats, mercury pollution, and negative impact on the =
health and=20
      culture of indigenous peoples. Indirectly, however, gold mining =
has=20
      contributed to deforestation processes. During the 1980s, when the =
price=20
      of gold was at a high point, the prospect of wealth from gold =
induced=20
      thousands of freelance prospectors (=93garimpeiros=94) to come to =
the Amazon=20
      from other parts of Brazil, especially Maranh=E3o. Most of these =
people=20
      remained in the region, usually in some other role such as =
landless=20
      migrants or small farmers. In some cases, money from gold =
contributed to=20
      expanding the agricultural and ranching activities in settlement =
areas,=20
      settlers temporarily leaving their lots to work in the mining =
areas=20
      (MacMillan 1995). In 2008, the crash in financial markets, =
especially in=20
      the United States, suddenly drove gold prices to record levels, =
raising=20
      the prospect of renewed pressure on Amazonia from =
goldminers.<BR><BR><A=20
      name=3DLaborers></A><SPAN class=3Dheading2>Laborers/Debt=20
      Slaves</SPAN><BR><BR>One component of migrants to the region is =
composed=20
      of single men or men who arrive without their families. Many of =
these=20
      people seek employment as laborers, and many find themselves =
working as=20
      slave labor in deforestation crews that are assembled by =
=93gatos=94=20
      (literally =93cats,=94 referring to intermediaries who supply =
labor to=20
      ranchers who contract clearing for an agreed amount per hectare). =
The=20
      laborers buy their food and other supplies on credit from the =
=93gato=94 at=20
      grossly inflated prices and soon accumulate debts that grow faster =
than=20
      any credit can possibly be earned through labor. The result is =
that the=20
      laborer is then trapped as a =93slave=94 who would be shot if he =
attempted to=20
      leave (Rocha 2005). The same applies to the notorious =
charcoal-making=20
      industry (e.g., Fearnside 1999a, Sutton 1994). Particularly in the =
case of=20
      charcoal making, entire families are held, including children. =
Both=20
      =93degrading conditions analogous to slavery=94 (International =
Labor=20
      Organization 2002) and child labor violate Brazilian labor =
legislation.=20
      Ranchers and intermediaries can =93buy=94 slaves by paying off =
their debt to=20
      another operator (e.g., Ag=EAncia Carta Maior 2007). Although over =
the years=20
      a minimal enforcement effort has meant that these practices are =
tolerated=20
      in practice on Amazonian deforestation frontiers, there has also =
been an=20
      increased enforcement effort in recent years. In 2002, Brazil had =
an=20
      estimated 15&nbsp;000 such =93slaves=94 (Anonymous 2002), a number =
that has=20
      undoubtedly grown substantially since despite the efforts of a =
Ministry of=20
      Labor =93mobile team=94 to locate and free them. A 2006 estimate =
placed the=20
      number at 25&nbsp;000 just in Par=E1 (Campbell 2006). The presence =
of slaves=20
      contributes to deforestation by providing cheap labor to ranchers =
and=20
      =93grileiros.=94 Those laborers who avoid slavery or who are =
released often=20
      become landless migrants, thereby playing other roles in the =
deforestation=20
      process. Between 1995 and 2006, 20&nbsp;000 slaves were freed in =
Brazil as=20
      a result of government raids, according to the agency responsible =
(Di=E1rio=20
      do Par=E1 2006).<BR><BR><A name=3DCapitalized></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading2>Capitalized Farmers</SPAN><BR><BR>More =
capitalized small=20
      farmers come to Amazonia from other regions seeking land purchase, =

      especially those who have sold small farms in southern Brazil and =
are=20
      using the funds to invest in larger parcels in Amazonia. Private=20
      settlement projects in Tucum=E3, Par=E1 and in Alta Floresta, Mato =
Grosso in=20
      the late 1970s and early 1980s facilitated this kind of movement =
for small=20
      landowners from southern Brazil (Browder and Godfrey 1997, pages =
226=96230).=20
      Now this pattern is being followed by soy farmers moving from Mato =
Grosso=20
      to the Santar=E9m area on the BR-163 Highway, and to a lesser =
degree in the=20
      state of Amazonas on the BR-319 Highway. Investment has been =
increasing in=20
      raising beef for export (Arima et al. 2005, Smeraldi and May 2008) =
and in=20
      soybeans (Brown et al. 2005, Fearnside 2001b, Hecht 2005). Soybean =

      plantations are installed both on land converted from pasture and =
on land=20
      converted directly from tropical forest. Land converted from =
tropical=20
      forest is sometimes first planted to another annual crop to =
=93prepare=94 the=20
      soil for soy. In Mato Grosso, deforestation for annual crops is =
highly=20
      correlated to soybean prices in the same year (Morton et al. =
2006).=20
      Deforestation for both pasture and soybeans increased over the =
1997=962004=20
      period, followed by a decline over the 2005=962007 period, =
coincident with=20
      falling international prices for these commodities and a worsening =

      exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar from =
the=20
      point-of-view of Brazilian exporters (Table 2). The price of =
soybeans,=20
      expressed in reais, declined by half between 2005 and 2007, =
whereas the=20
      deforestation rate fell by a similar percentage between 2004 and =
2007=20
      (Arini 2008).<BR><!-- TABLE2 --><BR>A recovery of soy prices in =
2007 has=20
      spurred a surge of deforestation activity in the state of Mato =
Grosso.=20
      Internationally, the price of soybeans rose throughout 2007, =
entering into=20
      the territory of all-time record prices on the Chicago Commodity =
Exchange=20
      beginning in December 2007 (Globo Video 2008). Between August and =
November=20
      2007, approximately 7000 km<SUP>2</SUP> were deforested according =
to an=20
      estimate based on MODIS satellite data released by the Instituto =
Nacional=20
      de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) (Brazil, INPE 2008). The Minister of =

      Agriculture (Reinhold Stephanes) and the governor of Mato Grosso =
(soybean=20
      magnate Blairo Maggi) vigorously denied any connection between =
soybeans=20
      and the deforestation surge (Sant=92Anna 2008). However, although =
many of=20
      the 36 municipalities identified as deforestation hotspots are =
located in=20
      areas dominated by ranching, several are right in the middle of =
the soy=20
      belt in Mato Grosso, such as Nova Ubirat=E3, Ulian=F3polis, and =
Quer=EAncia=20
      (Zanini and Cabral 2008).<BR><BR>The current rush to biofuels =
represents=20
      an additional future attraction for movement of capital and =
capitalized=20
      farmers to Amazonia (Kileen 2007). In 2007, the Brazilian =
government began=20
      an intensive campaign to attract international interest in =
importing=20
      biofuels from Brazil, particularly alcohol from sugarcane. The =
Ministry of=20
      External Relations repeatedly claimed that there is =93no limit=94 =
to how much=20
      biofuel Brazil can export=97whatever the world wants to buy, =
Brazil can=20
      expand its production to supply it. Unfortunately, Brazil, like =
every=20
      other country, does have limits. In this case, severe limits are =
implied=20
      by the environmental impact of greatly expanding areas of crops =
for=20
      feedstocks. Energy crops destroy natural ecosystems both by =
replacing them=20
      directly and by displacing other land uses, especially cattle =
pasture, to=20
      forest areas in Amazonia. Cattle have been displaced to Amazonia =
from=20
      former ranching areas in other parts of Brazil by the advance of =
soybeans=20
      and, more recently, sugarcane for alcohol (Smeraldi and May 2008). =
Recent=20
      analyses have shown that the net result of converting tropical =
forest to=20
      energy crops is highly negative for many decades (Fargione et al. =
2008,=20
      Searchinger et al. 2008a). In fact, the impact of current trends =
is even=20
      more negative because these analyses do not include the additional =
impact=20
      of deforestation for cattle ranching that is displaced into =
Amazonia by=20
      expansion of energy crops in other parts of Brazil (Searchinger et =
al.=20
      2008b, page 11).<BR><BR><A name=3DLandgrabbers></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading2>Landgrabbers (=93Grileiros=94)</SPAN><BR><BR>A =
form of movement=20
      with significant consequences is represented by groups of large =
illegal=20
      landgrabbers (=93grileiros=94). =93Grilo=94 means =93cricket=94 in =
Portuguese, and the=20
      term =93grileiro=94 is supposedly a reference to a practice =
(whether it be=20
      fact or lore) of forged titles being made to look old by placing =
them for=20
      a few days in a box filled with crickets. =93Grileiros=94 obtain =
large blocks=20
      of land through forgery, bribery, and/or violence. These practices =
are=20
      made easier by the confused and overlapping land claims in =
Amazonia and by=20
      the decentralized nature of =93cartorios=94 (document =
repositories) scattered=20
      across the region in municipal seats. =93Grileiros=94 can make =
money by=20
      exploiting timber and other resources whether or not they are =
ultimately=20
      successful in obtaining title. They make large profits by =
subdividing and=20
      selling their claim to others, who may or may not be aware of the =
illegal=20
      status of the land claim. Holding claims requires the services of=20
      gunslingers (=93pistoleiros=94) and others on the ground in the =
areas=20
      involved. Movement of =93grileiros=94 from the BR-163 Highway in =
Par=E1 to the=20
      Apu=ED area in Amazonas is a type of event that can result in =
large areas of=20
      deforestation even though the number of people is small (Fearnside =

      2007).<BR><BR><A name=3DSawmill></A><SPAN class=3Dheading2>Sawmill =

      Operators/Loggers</SPAN><BR><BR>Sawmill owners represent another =
migratory=20
      group with great impact on the forest. A substantial number came =
to=20
      Amazonia after destroying the Atlantic forest in either Espirito =
Santo or=20
      Paran=E1. These groups first came to areas in northern Mato Grosso =
such as=20
      Sinop, but with exhaustion of the forest have moved on to =
Rond=F4nia or to=20
      areas on the BR-163 Highway such as Moraes de Almeida and Novo =
Progresso=20
      (e.g., Schneider et al. 2000, Alencar et al. 2004, Lentini et al.=20
      2005).<BR><BR>Each year, logging affects an area approximately as =
large as=20
      the areas being deforested. Asner et al. (2005) used LANDSAT =
imagery to=20
      estimate an average of 15&nbsp;383 km<SUP>2</SUP>/year over the =
2000=962002=20
      period, excluding the state of Amazonas. Brazil=92s National =
Communication=20
      to the climate convention reports a rate an order of magnitude =
lower=20
      (Brazil, Ministry of Science and Technology (MCT) 2004, page 150), =
but=20
      this estimate appears to have detected only the logging decks =
(small=20
      clearings where logs are piled before transport) rather than the =
forest=20
      from which logs have been removed. The impact of logging is =
greatly=20
      magnified because of the increased probability of forest fires =
entering=20
      the logged areas, thereby setting in motion a positive feedback =
process=20
      that degrades the forest by successively more severe fires =
(Cochrane 2003,=20
      Cochrane et al. 1999).<BR><BR>
      <HR>
      <BR>
      <CENTER><A name=3DFUTUREMOVEMENTSOFACTORS11><SPAN =
class=3Dheading1>FUTURE=20
      MOVEMENTS OF ACTORS</SPAN></A></CENTER><BR>In the future, major =
movements=20
      are expected as a result of two planned dams on the Madeira River, =

      scheduled for completion in 2012. The dams will employ 20&nbsp;000 =

      construction workers and this contingent of unemployed men will be =
dumped=20
      almost simultaneously on Porto Velho at the end of the =
construction phase.=20
      The planned reconstruction of the BR-319 Highway from Porto Velho =
to=20
      Manaus makes it likely that a significant movement will occur to =
central=20
      Amazonia and to Roraima, opening new frontiers to deforestation =
(Fearnside=20
      and Gra=E7a 2006).<BR><BR>The plans for hydroelectric dam =
construction have=20
      tremendous potential to stimulate migration. The only time the =
full extent=20
      of dam-building plans has been released was the 2010 Plan in =
December 1987=20
      (Brazil, Eletrobr=E1s 1987; see Fearnside 1995). The plan listed =
79 dams in=20
      Brazil=92s 5 million km<SUP>2</SUP> Legal Amazon region, flooding=20
      100&nbsp;000 km<SUP>2</SUP> or 2% of the region. Many of these =
dams would=20
      displace significant resident populations, and all would stimulate =

      migration through the temporary employment offered during the =
construction=20
      phase and by the roads built to each dam site (e.g., Fearnside =
2001c,=20
      2006).<BR><BR>
      <HR>
      <BR>
      <CENTER><A name=3DTRANSFORMATIONSOFLANDANDACTORS14><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading1>TRANSFORMATIONS OF LAND AND=20
      ACTORS</SPAN></A></CENTER><BR>The nine categories of actors =
discussed=20
      above, and the locations they occupy, can undergo a series of=20
      transformations over time. The land in a particular place may =
start as=20
      public land and be invaded either by large =93grileiros,=94 by =
individual=20
      squatters, or by =93sem terras=94 (Fig. 3). Ranchers may purchase =
large blocks=20
      of land from =93grileiros=94 or may buy a number of small colonist =
lots. The=20
      ranches can be invaded by squatters or =93sem terras,=94 or, if =
the land is=20
      economically attractive for soybeans, the properties can be sold =
to=20
      capitalized farmers.<BR><!-- FIGURE3 --><BR>Money flows from =
external=20
      sources to specific groups of actors and speeds their clearing =
(Fig. 4).=20
      Money from illegal sources can be laundered through investments by =

      =93grileiros=94 and speculators, ranchers, and loggers. Government =
subsidies=20
      make important contributions to ranchers, colonists, capitalized =
farmers=20
      and, strange as it may seem, to =93sem terras=94 (see Fearnside =
2001a).=20
      External legal sources flow mainly to ranchers and capitalized =
farmers.=20
      Loggers play an important role by providing a source of funds =
through=20
      timber sales by other actors, such as =93grileiros,=94 ranchers, =
colonists,=20
      and =93sem terras.=94<BR><!-- FIGURE4 --><BR>The actors themselves =
can pass=20
      from one category to another with time, whether they remain in the =
same=20
      location or not (Fig. 5). Those who come to Amazonia from other =
regions=20
      can be grouped into =93poor=94 and =93non-poor=94 categories. Poor =
migrants have=20
      options as laborers (often as =93slaves=94), as goldminers, as =
squatters, and=20
      as =93sem terras,=94 or as urban residents. Those who become =
goldminers or=20
      slaves may later enter the ranks of squatters and =93sem =
terras.=94 =93Sem=20
      terras=94 may be offered legal lots as colonists or may migrate to =
=93favelas=94=20
      (shanty towns) in urban areas. Colonists may leave for urban areas =
or may=20
      expand their holdings to become middle-sized ranchers, and some of =
these=20
      will expand to become large ranchers. Urban centers drain some of =
the=20
      population from groups such as =93sem terras,=94 colonists, and =
middle-sized=20
      ranchers.<BR><!-- FIGURE5 --><BR>
      <HR>
      <BR>
      <CENTER><A name=3DPOLICYIMPLICATIONS17><SPAN =
class=3Dheading1>POLICY=20
      IMPLICATIONS</SPAN></A></CENTER><BR>Given the actors and processes =

      discussed above, measures that need to be taken to reduce =
deforestation=20
      can be grouped into the following categories:<BR><BR><A=20
      name=3DRemove></A><SPAN class=3Dheading2>Remove Motives for=20
      Deforestation</SPAN><BR><BR><A name=3DStop></A><SPAN =
class=3Dheading3>Stop=20
      regularizing land claims</SPAN><BR><BR>The violence and =
lawlessness of the=20
      Amazon frontier is often compared with that of the =93wild west=94 =
of=20
      19<SUP>th</SUP>-century North America. The parallel with changes =
that took=20
      place in North America is relevant, although greater expectation =
of=20
      government support for smallholders in Brazil led to significantly =
more=20
      violent conflict (Alston et al. 1998). The =93closing of the =
frontier=94 in=20
      the United States in 1890 (Turner 1893) marked a turning point =
after which=20
      land for the taking was no longer available. Since that time, it =
has been=20
      the general assumption that anyone who is poor or unemployed must =
search=20
      for some sort of employment, either in the urban or rural setting. =
The=20
      possibility of simply entering an area of forest and clearing a =
homestead=20
      never even crosses people=92s minds, and were such a thing to =
happen, the=20
      squatter would be removed by police.<BR><BR>The movement of =
population and=20
      investment in Amazonia (and its associated deforestation) are, in =
large=20
      part, based on the expectation that invading and claiming public =
land will=20
      eventually be rewarded by a permanent land title. This has been =
the=20
      pattern in Brazil for over 400 years and is only likely to change =
by=20
      either reaching the end of the available land or by an alteration =
of=20
      national policy that is sufficiently visible and consistently =
enforced to=20
      be accepted by the population (Fearnside 1979). Estimates of the =
number of=20
      landless families in Brazil range from 5 to 10 million, which =
means that=20
      even if the entire Amazon region were distributed as 50-ha lots, =
it would=20
      be insufficient to solve the landlessness problem (e.g., Fearnside =
1985).=20
      Taking concrete steps to bring about the transition to end=20
      =93regularization=94 of land claims in Brazil is the most basic =
priority if=20
      the damage from movement of population and investment is to be =
contained.=20
      Of course, this transition cannot take place in isolation from =
programs to=20
      offer alternative livelihoods to the population. Nonetheless, the =
bottom=20
      line is that the frontier must be unambiguously closed.<BR><BR><A=20
      name=3DCut></A><SPAN class=3Dheading3>Cut =
subsidies</SPAN><BR><BR>A variety of=20
      subsidies encourage loggers, ranchers, and others. The effect of =
subsidies=20
      has evolved over time, but, contrary to popular perception, they =
are=20
      important drivers of deforestation to this day. In the 1970s and =
early=20
      1980s, subsidies through the Superintendency for the Development =
of=20
      Amazonia (SUDAM) provided vast sums to large cattle ranches, both =
through=20
      generous financing at interest rates below the prevailing rate of=20
      inflation and through credit against taxes owed on unrelated =
operations=20
      elsewhere in the country, in addition to tax exemptions on the =
ranching=20
      operations themselves (e.g., Fearnside 1987, Mahar 1979). These =
programs=20
      dwindled in the mid 1980s, but did not actually end until the mid =
1990s,=20
      years after official pronouncements had repeatedly claimed they no =
longer=20
      existed. In fact, the tax exemptions on the original =
SUDAM-approved=20
      ranches persist to this day (Brazil, Receita Federal =
2007).<BR><BR>Other=20
      subsidy programs have been added since the heyday of the SUDAM =
ranches.=20
      The Constitutional Fund of the North (FNO) distributes funds from =
the=20
      Banco da Amaz=F4nia (BASA). Under this is the National Program for =

      Strengthening Family Agriculture (Pronaf), which was created in =
1995 and=20
      expanded under the current presidential administration beginning =
in 2003.=20
      A study by IMAZON has shown that Pronaf financing for small =
farmers in=20
      official settlement areas results in much higher deforestation =
rates than=20
      for comparable farmers in areas outside of the official =
settlements,=20
      because farms outside the settlements lack access to the =
subsidized credit=20
      program (Domingos 2008). Interest rates for small farmers are far =
lower=20
      than those for any other enterprise at 1%=964% annually, compared =
with the=20
      standard rate from Brazil=92s Central Bank of 11.25%. In addition, =
small=20
      farmers get a discount of 25% if they repay the loan on time, plus =
a=20
      further =93bonus=94 discount of 40% for loans under R$12&nbsp;000=20
      (approximately US$6700) (Domingos 2008). BASA also lends FNO funds =
to=20
      medium and large property owners at subsidized rates: 5%=969% =
annual=20
      interest depending on the size of the property, plus a 15% =
discount for=20
      payments made on time (Domingos 2008). Aside from the subsidized =
interest=20
      and the effects of discounts, these loan programs in practice have =
a large=20
      additional subsidy because of the chronic practice of forgiving =
unpaid=20
      debts as part of =93amnesty=94 programs when weather or other =
conditions=20
      result in large losses (see Fearnside 2001a). In addition to =
Brazilian=20
      government subsidies, international funds have similar effects.=20
      Particularly controversial was a second loan from the World Bank =
Group=92s=20
      International Finance Corporation (IFC) in 2004 to the Andr=E9 =
Maggi Group=20
      for soybeans in Mato Grosso (e.g., Stickler et al. 2005). The loan =
was=20
      classified as =93Category B=94 by the IFC, meaning that it was not =
expected to=20
      result in environmental impact and was exempted from environmental =
review=20
      procedures within the Bank. The IFC=92s own auditing concluded =
that the=20
      =93Category B=94 classification was unwarranted and recommended =
measures to=20
      avoid similar errors (IFC, CAO 2005). However, in 2007, the IFC =
granted a=20
      major loan to the Bertin Group for slaughterhouses in Par=E1 under =
almost=20
      identical circumstances (Folha de S=E3o Paulo (FSP) 2007). All of =
these=20
      subsidies need to be ended.<BR><BR><A name=3DEstablish></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading2>Establish the Rule of Law</SPAN><BR><BR><A=20
      name=3DComplete></A><SPAN class=3Dheading3>Complete a cadaster of =
land=20
      titles</SPAN><BR><BR>Associating clearings observed from =
satellites with=20
      specific landowners requires a cadaster, or register, of =
properties with=20
      georeferenced boundaries. Such a cadaster has long been an =
official goal=20
      of INCRA, but successive delays and budget cuts have prevented =
reaching=20
      the goal anywhere in the region. The decentralized system of =
document=20
      depositories (=93cartorios=94) in Brazil is particularly =
susceptible to=20
      corruption and to maintenance of conflicting, overlapping, and=20
      incompletely described landholdings. The surge in deforestation in =
late=20
      2007 provoked an announcement that the cadaster will be completed =
first=20
      for properties &gt;250 ha in area in the 36 municipalities that =
accounted=20
      for most of the clearing surge (Brazil, INCRA 2008).<BR><BR><A=20
      name=3DReinforce></A><SPAN class=3Dheading3>Reinforce command and=20
      control</SPAN><BR><BR>Command-and-control operations can restrain=20
      deforestation through licensing and repression. Skepticism =
regarding the=20
      government=92s ability to control deforestation is frequent due to =
the long=20
      history of =93packages=94 of government measures being announced =
whenever=20
      satellite data are released indicating an increase in =
deforestation, after=20
      which the deforestation rate may increase or not with no =
perceptible=20
      effect resulting from the repression program. This skepticism =
among=20
      Brazilian negotiators of agreements under the UN Framework =
Convention on=20
      Climate Change has been at the root of the country=92s traditional =
refusal=20
      to consider carbon credit for avoided deforestation, the fear =
being that=20
      if Brazil commits itself to reducing deforestation by a specific =
amount=20
      and then fails to do so, the country could be subject to pressures =
that=20
      would jeopardize its sovereignty over Amazonia (see Fearnside =
2001d,=20
      Fearnside and Barbosa 2003). The example of the Mato Grosso state=20
      government=92s deforestation and licensing program from 1999 to =
2001, when a=20
      measurable reduction in deforestation could be attributed to the =
program,=20
      serves as an important example for this reason (Fearnside=20
      2003).<BR><BR>Illegal logging has proved to be more difficult to =
control=20
      than deforestation. This situation may improve in the future due =
to recent=20
      advances in satellite detection of logging disturbance (Asner et =
al.=20
      2006), plus administrative advances in replacing easily forged or=20
      corrupted documentation. Nevertheless, the high monetary value and =
the=20
      ephemeral nature of logging activity make control measures =
inherently easy=20
      to corrupt. Certification of =93sustainable=94 forest management =
operations=20
      has potential, but these operations cannot be economically =
competitive=20
      unless illegal =93predatory=94 logging can be stopped. In 1997, =
Brazil=92s=20
      Secretariat of Strategic Affairs estimated that 80% of logging in=20
      Brazilian Amazonia was illegal (Brazil, Secretaria de Assuntos=20
      Estrat=E9gicas (SAE) 1997, cited by Greenpeace 2001). =
Subsequently, a series=20
      of provisions made it easier to =93legalize=94 the extracted =
timber, such that=20
      an estimated 75% of the timber had some sort of documentation by =
2002, but=20
      virtually all of this wood remained just as predatory in its =
origins (John=20
      2002).<BR><BR><A name=3DDiscourage></A><SPAN =
class=3Dheading2>Discourage=20
      Movement to Frontier</SPAN><BR><BR><A name=3DRestraint></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading3>Exercise restraint in approving=20
      infrastructure</SPAN><BR><BR>Restraint must be exercised in =
approving and=20
      building infrastructure that has a high potential to spread =
deforestation=20
      (Fearnside 2002, Laurance et al. 2001). Roads are the principal =
factor=20
      leading to movement of population and to increased land prices and =

      consequent land speculation (in addition to increased agricultural =

      profitability). Economic analyses indicate that decreasing the =
transport=20
      costs from Amazonia to the rest of Brazil is one of the factors =
that has=20
      the greatest effect on increasing deforestation (Cattaneo 2001). =
Since=20
      1986, an Environmental Impact Study (EIA) and associated Report on =
Impact=20
      on the Environment (RIMA), jointly known as the =93EIA/RIMA,=94 =
have been=20
      required for infrastructure projects, despite a variety of cases =
where=20
      project proponents have managed to circumvent the requirement. The =

      EIA/RIMA has a potentially important role to play in restraining =
the=20
      construction of particularly damaging infrastructure projects. =
However,=20
      the EIA/RIMA has so far been restricted to legitimizing decisions =
on=20
      infrastructure that have, in fact, been made before the studies =
are=20
      undertaken. In addition, the EIA/RIMA restricts itself to direct =
effects,=20
      such as the roadbed of a highway, rather than the much more =
important=20
      effects of deforestation stimulated by the road in the surrounding =
area=20
      (e.g., Fearnside 2007). The system of contracting the studies by =
project=20
      proponents also involves obvious biases in favor of whatever =
project is=20
      proposed (e.g., Fearnside and Barbosa 1996). The system must be=20
      strengthened such that the full impact of the proposed projects is =

      assessed and compared with other alternatives (including =
no-project=20
      alternatives) before decisions are made.<BR><BR><A =
name=3DCreate></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading3>Create and protect conservation=20
      units</SPAN><BR><BR>Protected areas, including indigenous areas, =
have a=20
      significant effect on deforestation (e.g., Schwartzman et al. =
2000,=20
      Ferreira et al. 2005, Nepstad et al. 2006). This last category, =
which has=20
      so far been the most widely applied, is currently under threat =
from a=20
      proposed law in the National Congress that would remove authority =
from the=20
      Ministry of the Environment and from the President to create new =
protected=20
      areas, and require approval by the National Congress for any new =
reserves.=20
      This proposal of the =93Ruralist block=94 (a voting block of =
representatives=20
      of large landholders) would effectively end any further expansion =
of=20
      Brazil=92s protected-areas network.<BR><BR><A =
name=3DAlternative></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading2>Create Economic Alternative</SPAN><BR><BR><A=20
      name=3DSource></A><SPAN class=3Dheading3>Create employment in =
source areas and=20
      alternative destinations</SPAN><BR><BR>Employment opportunities =
are needed=20
      for potential migrants in source areas and in alternative =
destinations,=20
      including urban centers. This is important for poor migrants, such =
as=20
      those coming from Maranh=E3o. It should not be confused with =
facilitating=20
      the investments of wealthy entrepreneurs (Fearnside 1989b). It is=20
      important to remember also that, although alternatives in source =
areas=20
      (including agrarian reform) are important and deserve continual =
government=20
      support, ending the regularization of invasions by landless =
migrants in=20
      Amazonia cannot be held hostage to eliminating poverty in the rest =
of=20
      Brazil.<BR><BR><A name=3DUses></A><BR><SPAN =
class=3Dheading3>Support=20
      sustainable uses</SPAN><BR><BR>Maintaining population in the =
forest=20
      requires implantation and regulation of sustainable uses of =
standing=20
      tropical forest, including =93extractivism=94 of non-timber forest =
products=20
      such as rubber and Brazil nuts, and forest management for timber.=20
      Certification efforts are an important part of these =
efforts.<BR><BR><A=20
      name=3DDomestic></A><SPAN class=3Dheading3>Support alternative =
supply of=20
      domestic markets</SPAN><BR><BR>National markets for food and fiber =
must=20
      have sources of supply that do not require cutting Amazonian =
forest. Wood=20
      in particular must eventually be supplied from plantations for all =
uses=20
      that do not require particular species from native forest (i.e., =
musical=20
      instruments, etc.). Of all of the countries in the world, Brazil =
consumes=20
      the largest amount of tropical forest wood, totaling 34 million=20
      m<SUP>3</SUP> of logs in 1997 (Smeraldi and Ver=EDssimo 1999). =
Only 5% of=20
      the harvested tropical forest wood is exported, the rest being =
used=20
      domestically (Smeraldi and Ver=EDssimo 1999). Brazil=92s large =
areas of=20
      silvicultural plantations are used almost exclusively for pulp and =

      charcoal, not for solid wood (Fearnside 1998). A transition to =
plantation=20
      sources will require closing off the supply of cheap timber from =
Amazonian=20
      forests.<BR><BR>The distinction between national and international =
markets=20
      is essential. The Brazilian government has a certain =
responsibility to=20
      supply the country=92s population with products such as food, =
wood,=20
      electricity, and minerals. However, Brazil has no obligation to =
supply=20
      these products to any other country. Whether Brazil exports =
products with=20
      environmental impacts represents a national decision in which the =
country=20
      is free to pick and choose among various possible export products =
based on=20
      its own interests. Products with strong environmental impacts =
include=20
      tropical timber, aluminum (which motivates much of Brazil=92s rush =
to build=20
      hydroelectric dams), and potentially biofuels. Brazil and Amazonia =
are not=20
      a vast storehouse from which the world is free to obtain whatever =
it might=20
      want to buy (e.g., Fearnside 1989c, 2006). A decision of this type =
has=20
      been taken in the case of mahogany (<I>Swietenia macrophylla</I>), =
for=20
      which a harvesting moratorium is in effect in recognition of the=20
      environmental damage that exploiting this species inflicts on the =
forest.=20
      Countries that want to buy mahogany can obtain it in Bolivia or =
elsewhere,=20
      but not legally from Brazil. The same principle could be applied =
to a=20
      variety of other highly damaging products.<BR><BR><A =
name=3DReward></A><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading3>Reward environmental services</SPAN><BR><BR>The=20
      environmental services of the forest include avoiding global =
warming,=20
      maintaining the hydrological cycle, and maintaining biodiversity. =
These=20
      have much greater value to society than does what is obtained by=20
      destroying the forest to sell timber, plant cattle pasture, etc. =
Creating=20
      institutional mechanisms to translate this value into monetary =
flows that=20
      sustain both the region=92s rural population and the forest is the =
primary=20
      challenge facing efforts to create an alternative economy of the =
magnitude=20
      needed (Fearnside 1997). Although continuous progress has been =
made in the=20
      over two decades since this author proposed such a transition, the =
forces=20
      driving forest destruction have advanced tremendously. Examples of =
schemes=20
      for direct payments for environmental services to private =
landholders in=20
      tropical countries outside of Amazonia illustrate the difficulties =

      involved in balancing social and environmental goals (e.g., =
Grieg-Gran et=20
      al. 2005, Karousakis 2007, S=E1nchez-Azofeifa et al. 2007). An =
incipient=20
      initiative in Brazil=92s state of Amazonas (Viana and Campos 2007) =
needs to=20
      be carefully watched to ensure that its carbon benefits are real =
and that=20
      a variety of potential negative side effects are avoided =
(Fearnside 2008).=20
      It is essential that such limited payment for environmental =
services=20
      programs functions properly as a prelude to larger monetary flows =
that=20
      could be generated through international negotiations such as =
those under=20
      the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UNFCCC =
has=20
      progressed the furthest toward rewarding environmental services, =
in this=20
      case the carbon storage functions of the forest, but other =
environmental=20
      services are equally valuable and must eventually be =
rewarded.<BR><BR>
      <HR>
      <BR>
      <CENTER><A name=3DCONCLUSIONS20><SPAN=20
      class=3Dheading1>CONCLUSIONS</SPAN></A></CENTER><BR>The impact on=20
      deforestation of actors and their movements in Brazilian Amazonia =
depends=20
      greatly on the actors involved. Cattle ranching predominates in =
deforested=20
      areas, allowing a small human population to have a large impact on =

      clearing. The effects are large and rapid when movements are of =
actors=20
      such as =93grileiros,=94 sawmill owners, and ranchers with illicit =
income=20
      sources. Other actors include capitalized farmers who invest in =
legitimate=20
      agriculture, and a number of types of poor migrants, including =
goldminers,=20
      laborers, colonists, and squatters. Limiting deforestation will =
require=20
      measures that affect all of these diverse groups.<BR><BR>Removing =
the=20
      motives for deforestation will require a stop to regularizing land =
claims,=20
      as well as cutting the various subsidies through which Brazilian =
taxpayers=20
      still contribute to the profitability of clearing. Controlling=20
      deforestation requires establishment of the rule of law throughout =

      Amazonia, including a complete cadaster, or register, of land =
titles and=20
      reinforcement of command-and-control programs. Movement to the =
frontier=20
      must be discouraged by exercising restraint in approving =
infrastructure=20
      projects, especially for highways, and by creating and protecting=20
      conservation units. At the same time, economic alternatives must =
be=20
      created by generating employment in source areas and in =
alternative=20
      destinations, by supporting sustainable uses of the forest and =
alternative=20
      supply of national markets for products such as wood. Most =
fundamental is=20
      continued progress in creating mechanisms to reward the =
environmental=20
      services of standing forest as an alternative foundation for the =
economy=20
      in rural Amazonia.<BR><BR><!-- RESPONSES (DO NOT EDIT) -->
      <HR>
      <BR>
      <CENTER><A name=3DRESPONSESTOTHISARTICLE23><SPAN =
class=3Dheading1>RESPONSES TO=20
      THIS ARTICLE</SPAN></A></CENTER><BR><BR>Responses to this article =
are=20
      invited. If accepted for publication, your response will be =
hyperlinked to=20
      the article. To submit a response, follow <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/responses.php?articleid=3D2451&a=
mp;mode=3Dadd"=20
      target=3D_top>this link</A>. To read responses already accepted, =
follow <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/responses.php?articleid=3D2451" =

      target=3D_top>this link</A><BR><!-- END RESPONSES --><!-- =
ACKNOWLEDGMENT_BLOCK (DO NOT EDIT) --><BR>
      <HR>
      <BR><A name=3DACKNOWLEDGMENTS><SPAN=20
      class=3Dproof_acknowledgments>ACKNOWLEDGMENTS</SPAN></A>
      <P><I>Paper presented at the Symposium on "The influence of human=20
      demography and agriculture on natural systems in the Neotropics,"=20
      Association for Tropical Biology and Conservation 2007 Annual =
Meeting,=20
      Morelia, Michoac=E1n, Mexico, 15=9619 July 2007, with travel =
funding from NSF=20
      (DEB-0731594). The Conselho Nacional do Desenvolvimento =
Cient=EDfico e=20
      Tecnol=F3gico (CNPq: Proc. 306031/2004-3, 474548/2006-6, =
557152/2005-4,=20
      420199/2005-5), Rede GEOMA, and the Instituto Nacional de =
Pesquisas da=20
      Amaz=F4nia (INPA: PPI PRJ05.57) contributed financial support. E. =
H. Keizer=20
      produced the figures. M. Aide, R. Grau, L. Gunderson, and three =
anonymous=20
      reviewers made valuable comments on the manuscript.</I>
      <P><!-- END ACKNOWLEDGMENT_BLOCK --><BR>
      <HR>
      <BR>
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target=3DCEFigWin>Table1</A> &nbsp;|&nbsp;<A=20
title=3D"Deforestation in Brazil=92s Amazonian states"=20
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/table2.html"=20
target=3DCEFigWin>Table2</A> &nbsp;|&nbsp;<A=20
title=3D"Brazilian Amazonia with locations mentioned in the text."=20
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/figure1.html"=20
target=3DCEFigWin>Figure1</A> &nbsp;|&nbsp;<A=20
title=3D"Deforestation through 2006 in Brazilian Amazonia."=20
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/figure2.html"=20
target=3DCEFigWin>Figure2</A> &nbsp;|&nbsp;<A=20
title=3D"Land holdings: transformations in the status of a given piece =
of land over time."=20
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/figure3.html"=20
target=3DCEFigWin>Figure3</A> &nbsp;|&nbsp;<A=20
title=3D"Money flows: major financial flows to and among actors."=20
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/figure4.html"=20
target=3DCEFigWin>Figure4</A> &nbsp;|&nbsp;<A=20
title=3D"Population: transformations over time of a given individual or =
family."=20
href=3D"http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23/figure5.html"=20
target=3DCEFigWin>Figure5</A> </CENTER></BODY></HTML>

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