MCT - Convention on Climate Change - Brazilian = Participation - News Board

From: Subject: MCT - Convention on Climate Change - Brazilian Participation - News Board - Climate: where uncertainty lays Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2010 07:06:02 -0700 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01CB20C7.85DE4BF0" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.5931 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01CB20C7.85DE4BF0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: file://C:\Phil\Fearnside internet press\MCT - Convention on Climate Change - Brazilian Participation - News Board - Climate where uncertainty lays.htm MCT - Convention on Climate Change - Brazilian = Participation - News Board - Climate: where uncertainty lays

Talk=20 to=20 = us

The=20 Science of
Climate=20 = Change

The=20 United Nations
Framework=20 = Convention

Brazil=20 and the
Convention

=20 National<= /A>=20
Communication

=20 Negotiation= s

The=20 Kyoto=20 = Protocol

Clean=20 Development
Mechanism
=

Program:=20
Climate=20 Change=20 = Program

Interminist= erial=20
= Commission=20 =
on = Global=20 = Climate
&n= bsp;Change

Brazilian=20 Climate
<= SMALL> Change=20 = Forum

News=20 Board
Climate: where uncertainty lays=20

Discussions on = climate change =97=20 and who may be contributing to it =97 are certainly going to = intensify=20 throughout this week and part of the next one, not only within = the scope=20 of the Brazil Agenda XXI forum, which the Ministry of = Environment=20 initiated yesterday at the BNDES (Brazilian Foundation for = Sustainable=20 Development), but also at the Rio+5 meetings, starting on = Thursday under=20 the coordination of the Earth=92s Council (both meetings taking = place in=20 Rio de Janeiro). And it will not be by chance, neither there = will be=20 insufficient reasons for weeping and gnashing of teeth.=20

To begin with, = it=92s worth=20 recalling words by scientist Philip Fearnside, from the Amazonia = Research Institute, when he participated last January of an = opportune=20 balance of the last five years of environmental plan, promoted = by the=20 Brazilian Academy of Sciences, the Advanced Studies Institute of = the=20 University of S=E3o Paulo and the Brazilian Foundation for = Sustainable=20 Development. Fearnside criticized the position of those, inside = and=20 outside Brazil, who suggest an attitude of precaution in face of = this=20 matter, using the argument that there would be still too much=20 uncertainty as to the possibility of climate changes happen due = to human=20 actions. Fearnside pointed out that if there is uncertainty, it = is more=20 likely to be in its maximum degree for changes to happen and = less in its=20 minimum degree (it=92s practically certain that they will take = place at=20 some extent, say the scientists, if we do not revert the current = scenario of emissions; therefore, even the United States have = accepted=20 the imposition of mandatory emission limits). Besides, = precaution should=20 guide our conduct so that we are prudent and moderate, and not = be used=20 as an excuse for us to keep increasing atmospheric pollution.=20

This starting point = established, it is painful to come to the conclusion that we are = not=20 among the prudent ones. Far from that. Although technically = protected by=20 diplomatic subtleties, we are behind with the inventory of our=20 pollutants emissions, and the most favorable hypothesis is that = we=20 finish it in the middle of the next year =97 in spite of around = six=20 hundred people from more than fifty institutions be working on = it, under=20 the coordination of the Ministry of Science and Technology. We = sure have=20 problems with capacity building of scientists for this task, as = it is=20 also true that from the R$ 7 million promised for that, only R$ = 1.5=20 million was provided, since the granting countries have not = fulfilled=20 the obligations accepted at the respective convention. But, as = recalled=20 Prof. Fernando Rei, from USP and UNICAMP and executive secretary = to the=20 State Climate Change Program (SP) at the said balance, "we = cannot say=20 that there is already an effective work for implementation of = the=20 Convention in Brazil". An opinion shared by the coordinator of = this area=20 at the Ministry of Science and Technology, Jos=E9 Domingos = Gonzalez=20 Miguez, who believes that "in Brazil, climate change is not a = priority"=20 =97 we lack reliable information from various sectors, as well = as=20 methodologies, resources and the actual administrative reform of = the=20 federal government raises difficulties for forming a technical = team=20 "putting the success of the project at risk". =

It is a matter of = concern=20 because all the scientists agree that Brazilian pollutants = emissions=20 (estimated today to be around 2% of total emissions) should = grow, even=20 though they know that 95% of our energy generation comes from=20 hydroelectric plants, that we have a generation program from = renewable=20 biomass, the (orphan and semi-abandoned) Pro-alcohol, as well as = an=20 energy conservation program, which continues to be little = encouraged=20 (Eletrobr=E1s admits that our electricity waste is still 15.5% = of the=20 total production and that it only intends to reduce it by 5% = over twenty=20 years).

Anyway, developing = countries=20 have already attempted to move Brazil =97 along with China and = India =97=20 from their position under the convention on climate change in a = group=20 with differentiated and smaller responsibilities, for the group = of=20 nations that answer for 65% of emissions and hold much greater=20 responsibilities. Meanwhile, these countries that are the = greatest=20 polluters delay the fulfillment of their own obligations, = claiming=20 either that technological changes may come upon with more = efficient=20 results, or that cheaper methods for reducing emissions may be=20 discovered.

But an internal = controversy,=20 inside and outside Brazil, arises in relation to this particular = matter,=20 as the convention enables the "joint implementation" of projects = for the=20 reduction of pollutants emissions. Many developed countries = interpreted=20 this permission as the possibility of financing projects for the = reduction of pollutants emissions in developing countries, but = abating=20 this reduction from the emissions balance of the countries that = financed=20 this credit. It is a very controversial view. A good example =97 = mentioned=20 by Prof. Jos=E9 Domingos Gonzalez Miguez =97 happened in Sweden, = which=20 financed a program for substituting coal as energy source in the = Baltic=20 countries in order to reduce emissions. It sold technology,=20 consultancies, provided financing at market interest rates, = managed to=20 reduce the acid rain produced in those countries and that fell = on=20 Swedish forests =97 and still claimed the right to abate from = their=20 pollutants emissions the reduction obtained in the Baltic = States.=20

In Brazil, there is = no=20 unanimity in this issue. Philip Fearnside himself believes that = we=20 should accept this kind of projects to implant, for instance,=20 reforestation programs in degraded areas, like the Floram = Program (which=20 could be accounted as "carbon sinks"). He also thinks that we = should=20 claim the consideration of the benefits generated for the planet = with=20 the preservation of the Amazonian forest =97 not for us to = acquire the=20 right to emit more pollutants, but to obtain resources that = would enable=20 us to take further preservation steps.

Although Prof. = Fernando Rei=20 does not consider advantageous Brazil=92s "promotion" to the = group of the=20 greatest polluters, via joint implementation, he has no doubts = that we=20 can continue a process of economic growth =97 but with = decreasing=20 pollution. Undoubtedly, however, "current energy policies tend = to=20 stimulate economic competitiveness in detriment of the strategic = character of the efforts to establish a sustainable society". He = believes there is not enough incentive for energy renewable = sources and=20 conservation. Traditional economic instruments in decision = making ignore=20 social and environmental costs. They end up generating = distortions in=20 favor of energy options that have a prejudicial influence in the = environmental ground.

There is no other = way but=20 agreeing. Neither it is of any use whistling in the dark to = chase away=20 ghosts. According to the World Resources Institute, one of the = sponsors=20 of the Rio+5, since 1950, per capita emissions of carbon dioxide = in the=20 planet have grown from 2.38 to 4.21 metric tons a year. In the = United=20 States, the figure is 19.53 tons per person, in India, 0.81 ton. = Altogether, the industrial society has already increased the = level of=20 carbon concentration in the atmosphere by 30%. =

The fact that the = United States=20 accepted to discuss, at the conference to be held in Kyoto, next = December, the imposition of mandatory emissions limit is not an = evidence=20 of their good intentions. Neither will it be easy to reach an = agreement.=20 The establishment of new patterns may have deep consequences in = the=20 economy of each country =97 changes in energy matrixes, = investments=20 redistribution, jobs relocation, substitution of materials, = markets=20 consumption displacement and so on.

In Brazil, a = radical behavior=20 change would be essential, starting with the governments: = admitting that=20 in the next decades =97 slowly or by leaps and bounds =97 the = environmental=20 issues will consist of the foundation upon which all the = policies will=20 have to be laid. And whichever does not, will not survive, no = matter=20 what or from what sector they are. It will not be possible to = conceive,=20 for example, an energy policy (with its extensions in = privatizations) as=20 the current one, with sovereign contempt for the environmental = matters.=20 Neither a foreign trade policy dangerously based on the = intensive and=20 reckless use of natural resources (since they are sectors that = do not=20 interest developed countries, there are no longer political and = social=20 conditions to overburden them).

In other words, the = environment=20 is strategic in life and politics. We have to accept this fact = and take=20 the necessary steps.=20

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